What Are Predicted Grades?

Predicted grades are estimates made by teachers of the grades that students are likely to achieve in their final qualifications, such as A Levels, Scottish Highers or the International Baccalaureate. They are used in UCAS applications to UK universities, since students apply before taking final exams. Universities use predictions to decide whether to make offers.

How they are set

Teachers consider your performance in lessons, coursework, mock exams and trends in your progress, and they aim for realistic, evidence-based predictions. Schools have processes to moderate predictions, and some use a range of data. The predicted grade is included in your UCAS reference, together with a statement from your referee.

Predicted grades are not guarantees. Research has shown that predictions are often optimistic, and that actual results can be higher or lower.

How universities use them

Admissions teams use predicted grades with other information, such as your personal statement, reference and sometimes interviews or admissions tests. They then make an offer, usually conditional on achieving particular grades, for example AAB at A Level. If you meet the conditions when results are published, the place is confirmed. If you miss them, the university may still accept you or not, or you may use Clearing.

Some universities also use contextual data, such as school performance and local area, to make adjusted offers. See contextual offer.

What you can do

• Work consistently, since predictions reflect your record.
• Prepare well for mocks, since they influence teachers' judgments.
• Talk to your teachers about your target, and ask what would help you improve.
• Aim sensibly when choosing universities, with a range of offers.
• Plan for results day by keeping a backup choice and knowing about Clearing and Adjustment.

Alternatives

In some years, results are determined by other methods, such as teacher assessment during pandemic disruptions. Systems also differ by country, so international applicants should check what applies to them.

Related terms

See UCAS Tariff points, contextual offer, A Levels, baccalaureate and Clearing.